Sunday 6 June 2021

Euro 2020 Preview (Group E - Poland / Slovakia / Spain / Sweden)

 Team: POLAND

Squad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_squads#Poland
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/teams/109--poland/

Captain: Robert Lewandowski
Key Players: Robert LewandowskiWojciech SzczesnyPiotr Zielinski
Potential Breakout Player: Jakub Moder
Notable Absentees: Krzysztof Piatek (injury); Kamil Grosicki (injury)
Best Historical Finish: Quarterfinals (2016)
Minimum Expectation: Second Round
How Far Could They Go: Quarterfinals
Fantasy Football Sleeper Option: Wojciech Szczesny (GK - 5m)

Not since the late 1970s and early 1980s have the Polish fans been able to see as good a national side as they have enjoyed in the past decade. This will be their 4th consecutive Euros appearance, having none prior to this run, and they also made it to the 2018 World Cup albeit performing disappointingly. Poland were very impressive in qualifying winning their group which consisted of fellow qualifiers Austria and North Macedonia. Their qualifying campaign saw them stingy defensively conceding only five across the ten games.

This will likely be the final Euros for a number of their key players with six of their likely starters already the wrong side of 30. As they say with age comes experience and the experience they bring with them will be invaluable where progression is inherently possible, with the core of the 2016 quarterfinal edition returning. Let it not be forgot they were only eliminated in a penalty shootout to the eventual winners, Portugal.

The manager (Paulo Sousa) is extremely new on the job, having only taken the reins earlier this year. The tactical formation in play will be a 5-3-2. There will be a battle for the gloves but expect Szczesny to play behind a CB trio of Glik, Bednarek and Helik flanked by two flying wingbacks in Bereszynski and Rybus. The midfield trio of Zielinski, Krychowiak with one from Moder/Klich will play behind Milik and some dude named Robert. Their captain, their talisman and the best number 9 in world football is the key, no surprise there. Lewandowski will be the penalty box predator and with Milik and Zielinski he has two players who bring goal threats from slightly deeper positions as well. For a team built on being defensively sound, they have weapons to hurt you in attack as well. The biggest concern has to be the lack of depth, beyond those named above Linetty and Kedziora, no one has more than 13 caps. The absence of Piatek robs the Poles of a meaningful alternative to the front two.
 
A plethora of very good goalkeeping options, a well structured defence, a midfield full of running with a tinge of guile and Lewandowski. Poland will once more be an intriguing team and one that should be considered a proper dark horse. Poland have a shot at winning this group but should at least be capable of finishing 2nd. Either way the bracket, if unfolding as expected, will set up a manageable second round matchup before an almost certain run-in with a heavyweight in the quarterfinals should they get that far.


Team: SLOVAKIA
Squad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_squads#Slovakia
http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2016/teams/team=58836/squad/index.html

Captain: Marek Hamsik
Key Players: Marek HamsikMilan SkriniarJuraj Kucka
Potential Breakout Player: Robert Bozenik
Notable Absentee: Martin Skrtel (non-selection)
Best Historical Finish: Winner (1976 as Czechoslovakia); Second Round (2016)
Minimum Expectation: Qualifying (Already achieved)
How Far Could They Go: Group Stage
Fantasy Football Sleeper Option: Stay Away!

The less renowned of the former Czechoslovakian countries, Slovakia made their debut at the Euros in 2016 with much of the squad then having played in the country's finest football moments at the World Cup in 2010 where they advanced to the second round while eliminating the then defending World Champion Italians. They are returning eleven of the 2016 squad and somewhat incredibly three starters (still key players no less) from the 2010 World Cup - none are goalkeepers and all play in heavy running roles. 

They had a solid qualifying campaign finishing 3rd behind Croatia and Wales whilst ahead of the also qualified Hungary. Their presence at the tournament is down to their success in the UEFA Nations League where they emerged as winners of the Group B section after winning a penalty shootout against the Irish and then beating the Northern Irish in the final after extra time. Not a group welcome to the shores of Éire in future. They come into the tournament short of form, having been relegated to Group C in the most recent Nations League and having been unable to win against Cyprus, Malta and Bulgaria in 3 of their last 4 games - but they somehow beat the Russians during that stretch.

Their manager has been in the role since 2020 and the team play a fairly rigid 4-5-1 system. The lineup will likely be Dubravka in goal behind a defensive quartet of Pekarik, Skriniar, Hubocan/Vavro and Hancko. The midfield quintet will probably be Lobotka, Hamsik, Kucka, Duda and Mak behind Duris. Make no mistake this team is not one of the strongest at the tournament. Aside from Skriniar who was a key part of the team that won the Scudetto, the Slovak players play for lower tier clubs in the Top 5 leagues or in lesser leagues altogether.

This is the weakest team on paper in this group, they aren't great defensively and will likely struggle for goals. A bad combination and current form shows little to suggest otherwise. The majority of their best players are well past their primes and the players in their primes just aren't that great. The Slovaks will struggle to get a point in this group yet alone a win to have a chance of advancing.


Potential Breakout Player: Ferran Torres
Notable Absentees: Dani Carvajal (injury); Sergio Ramos (injury)
Best Historical Finish: Winners (1964; 2008; 2012)
Minimum Expectation: Second Round
How Far Could They Go: Semifinals
Fantasy Football Sleeper Option: Fabian Ruiz (MID - 6m)

The three-time Euro champion will enter the tournament as a major question mark. A hugely talented group for certain but the selection of the squad perplexed many. Despite massive upheaval on the playing staff, the results have largely continued to be sound. They topped their qualifying group unbeaten conceding only five goals and scoring thirty-one. Very impressive but among the key players in those successes, the vast majority - Kepa, Sergio Ramos, Jesus Navas, Inigo Martinez, Cazorla, Saul, Rodrigo, Alcacer and Asensio - aren't in the squad.

Despite the heavy turnover, the bulk of the squad coming into the tournament did at least feature prominently in a successful UEFA Nations League campaign where they qualified to be one of the semifinalists - poignantly thumping a German side 6-0 to secure the group win. Previous Spanish squads resembled all-star teams, with players who had stacks of caps and trophies - aside from a couple veterans this is largely inexperienced group. Only 7 have been to a major tournament with the senior squad, the same 7 are the only ones in the squad with more than 20 caps.

Their coach (Luis Enrique) took over after the disappointing 2018 World Cup, largely leading with successful results and a system, chopping and changing personnel liberally. The Spanish seem wed to a 4-3-3- system and will likely lineup with Unai Simon in goal behind a back four of Azpilicueta, Laporte, Pau Torres and Gaya. The midfield trio is likely to be Busquets, Koke and Fabian Ruiz (although Rodri and Thiago could easily be deputized in). The attacking trio is a headscratcher but Dani Olmo, Morata and Ferran Torres seems the likeliest bet. The squad is deep with players the ilk of Jordi Alba, Pedri, Marcos Llorente, Gerard Moreno and Oyarzabal - in addition to the aforementioned Rodri and Thiago - waiting in the wings. How quickly the Laporte/Pau Torres CB pairing gels, the finishing of Morata and the limiting of calamitous Unai Simon sightings will be key areas. The midfield and the wide players will be world class undoubtedly nonetheless.

They remain clear favourites to win this group but even with a slip-up should comfortably be capable of finishing 2nd. Either way the bracket, if unfolding as expected, will set up a manageable second round matchup before an almost certain run-in with a heavyweight in the quarterfinals. The talent is certainly there for Spain (albeit nowhere near the all-conquering version of the 2008-2012 vintage), but this is a team that has very little experience playing together making them borderline impossible to predict.


Team: SWEDEN
Squad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_squads#Sweden
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/teams/127--sweden/

Captain: Andreas Granqvist
Key Players: Victor LindelofEmil ForsbergAlexander Isak
Potential Breakout Player: Dejan Kulusevski
Notable Absentees: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (injury)
Best Historical Finish: Semifinals (1992)
Minimum Expectation: Second Round
How Far Could They Go: Second Round
Fantasy Football Sleeper Option: Dejan Kulusevski (MID - 7m)

The Swedes are firmly ensconced as a Euros regular making their 7th (6th consecutive) appearance at the tournament. Their deepest run being a semifinal run at the tournament they hosted in 1992, which as truly during a great period for the national team that battled to 3rd place finish at the 1994 World Cup as well. Qualification was fairly smooth process, as the Swedes only lost once in finishing 2nd to Spain and gaining automatic entry.

Five of the squad were part of the side that won the 2015 UEFA Under-21 tournament, nine return from Euro 2016 and sixteen (two-thirds of those in the squad that bowed out to England) return from the side that made it to the 2018 World Cup quarterfinals. Familiarity and a clearly indoctrinated style of play/formation, has proved a recipe for relative success for a team consistently has been the best of the Scandinavian teams.

Their coach took over just over Euro 2016 and has overseen a bright period of Swedish football, commanding the team to the World Cup positive performance, knocking out the Italians in a play-off to even qualify for the showpiece event. There is something old-fashioned about how the Swedes set up. A 4-4-2 with Olsen in goal behind Lustig, Granqvist, Lindelof, Bengtsson with a midfield of Forsberg, Svanberg/Larsson, Claesson and Kulusevki behind a front line of Isak and Berg. It is almost quaint that the Swedes have two big, powerful in the air CBs and a pair of big frontmen. The absence of Zlatan through injury robs the team and the tournament of one of the biggest characters (and still genuinely dominant) in football. Still with the likes of Helander, Ekdal, Krafth and Quaison they have reserves that boast experience internationally and consistently turn out for teams in the Top 5 domestic leagues.

Clearly inferior to Spain on paper, Sweden have enough to get past Slovakia. It will almost certainly be a straight shootout on the last day of the group in the head-to-head against Poland that will determine whether they advance. A draw should be enough to get them through, a defeat will probably end their campaign. 




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2 comments:

  1. For Spain, Isco and Diego Costa are also missing. I honestly do not know what to say about Enrique but I do not trust his selection at all. Also did Pique retire? I was wondering why he isn't there either.

    Anyways, for this group, I honestly think that Sweden will top it. As noted above, Spain is missing so many key players and the squad is very weakened even compared to 2018 World Cup squad. Might be one of the worst Spanish Squads since the 1990s.

    Poland has some good defenders and a promising attack with Lewandowski and Milik but really nothing in the middle. One also notable retiree is Błaszczykowski. He was a very good player for Poland and offered them something in midfield that they really don't have now. Zelinski is alright but I am not confident he can make too much of a difference on his own.

    Slovakia as well is probably the weakest team in the group in general but they have surprised before and I think we might see them surprise a little (not sure how much). One other player to watch is Robert Mak. Anyways Hamsik is in decline. I think Slovakia and Poland might draw which would eliminate both of them, but otherwise I don't see much else. Poland is slightly the stronger team but I think Slovakia might surprise, show up, and scrape a point off Poland.

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    Replies
    1. Diego Costa has been without a club for a few months I believe. Isco has been abysmal for the last 12-18 months for Real. Pique did in fact retire from international football after WC2018.

      Sweden will be without Kulusevski to COVID19 now, that is a big blow. Milik out of Euros with a knee injury, massive blow for the Poles.

      At this stage this group is looking like who loses the least key players before the first game.

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