Sunday 6 June 2021

Euro 2020 Preview (Group D - Croatia / Czech Republic / England / Scotland)

Team: CROATIA

Squad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_squads#Croatia
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/teams/56370--croatia/

Captain: Luka Modric
Key Players: Luka ModricMarcelo BrozovicAndrej Kramaric
Potential Breakout Player: Josip Brekalo
Notable Absentees: Marko Rog (injury); 
Best Historical Finish: Quarterfinals (1996; 2008)
Minimum Expectation: Second Round
How Far Could They Go: Quarterfinals
Fantasy Football Sleeper Option: Andrej Kramaric (FWD - 6.5m)

Croatia has produced some fantastic footballers and fantastic teams over the years, which appeared to have been at its zenith with a third place finish at World Cup 1998, then came the dream run to the World Cup final in 2018. Half of this squad returns from that sensational run. The Croatians topped a qualifying group which sent three additional qualifiers to this tournament (i.e. Wales, Slovakia and Hungary) losing just once. The UEFA Nations League results have not been as positive with successive poor returns, earning just two wins from ten fixtures in the Group A (top tier) sections in the first two editions.

This is almost certainly the last Euros for the likes of Modric and Perisic, perhaps even their last major tournament altogether. These Croat legends will provide experience to a group that sees a number of key players in their primes with Kovacic and Brozovic providing a blend of craft and hard-running in the middle of the park, with Pasalic there to add goal threat from midfield if required. Livakovic is one of the better goalkeepers at the tournament. Rebic provides pace and pressure up front, but as has become synonymous with Croat teams they are blessed with guile in attacking positions, Kramaric is already highly rated but the likes of Brekalo and Vlasic can be expected to use this tournament to strut their skills.

Their coach (Zlatko Dalic) has been in charge since 2017 when he came in to steer them through the World Cup playoffs and to their ultimate runners-up position. He has consistently deployed a 4-3-2-1 system with this group and certainly has players that are comfortable in this system. They should line-up with Lovakovic in goal behind a defensive quartet of Vrsaljko, Vida, Caleta-Car and Barisic. The midfield trio of Modric, Brozovic and Kovacic is a real area of strength with each capable of doing a bit of everything. The trio in attack will likely be Perisic, Kramaric and Vlasic. The ability to have options like Brekalo, Rebic, Lovren and Pasalic to come off the bench or even spot start, means this is a strong squad. 

The perennial dark horse tag is one made for Croatia. Flaws can always be found with Croatian squads, usually lack of depth or absence of strength in an area of the pitch which precludes them from being among the favourites. This edition may suffer the dark horse tag because of the aging squad, but write them off at your peril given there is quality all over. In the odd position of probably being better off finishing 2nd, winning this group guarantees the runner-up from Group F (likely France/Germany/Portugal), whereas 2nd guarantees the runner-up from Group E (likely Poland/Spain/Sweden) but then in all likelihood the winner of Group F in the quarterfinals. Given their recent record against top tier opposition, quarterfinals may be the likely end of the road.


Team: CZECH REPUBLIC
Squad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_squads#Czech_Republic
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/teams/58837--czech-republic/

Captain: Vladimir Darida
Key Players: Tomas SoucekVladimir DaridaPatrik Schick
Potential Breakout Player: Alex Kral
Notable Absentee: Ondrej Kudela (suspension)
Best Historical Finish: Winners (1976 as Czechoslovakia); Runners-Up (1996)
Minimum Expectation: Second Round
How Far Could They Go: Second Round
Fantasy Football Sleeper Option: Patrik Schick (FWD - 8m)

The Czech Republic have consistently qualified for the Euros ever since the break up of Czechoslovakia, with this being their 7th consecutive qualification. Despite reaching the final in 1996, their 2004 edition was probably their best opportunity to win the tournament when they boasted arguably the best team in their history led by Nedved, only to crash out to the Silver Goal to the eventual shock winners Greece in the semifinals. They qualified for this edition as the second placed team behind the English, beating the English 2-1 at home but being trounced 5-0 away.

The team will only return three players from the 2016 edition but with each expected to take a key role - Vaclik in goal, Darida as the midfield skipper and Kaderabek battling for the right back slot. The recent success of Slavia Prague in the Czech league has seen a plethora of their current and former players taking key roles within the squad. Soucek, Coufal and Barak are alumni already starring in Europe's Top 5 leagues, but expect the likes of Kral, Zima and Masopust to soon be doing the same, especially with the additional limelight of this tournament.

Their coach has been with the team since 2018 and his role as the Slavia Prague manager immediately preceding this role has probably provided the impetus to build around a nucleus of players he would have known well from domestic club management. They will likely lineup up in 4-2-3-1 formation with Vaclik in goal, Coufal and Boril as the fullbacks with Celustka/Brabec (Kudela was the first choice in recent internationals but received a 10 match ban for racial abuse incident in the Europa League) as the CB pairing. The midfield will likely consist of Soucek, Kral and Darida centrally with Jankto and Barak charged with getting forward to support target man Schick up top. The first men off the bench will likely be Holes, Masopust and Kaderabek but this is not a team blessed with great depth.

This team is materially inferior on paper to the the English and the Croats. They can be competitive but have no business splitting the top two and realistically must beat the Scots in their tournament opener and then if they can get a point against one of the presumed top two then qualification should be assured. Essentially with a knockout game to start the tournament, the Second Round is as far as can be expected for this squad given their limitations and an unfavourable bracket.


Team: ENGLAND
Squad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_squads#England
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/teams/39--england/

Captain: Harry Kane
Key Players: Harry KaneHarry MaguireDeclan Rice
Potential Breakout Player: Jude Bellingham
Notable Absentees: Trent Alexander-Arnold (injury); Nick Pope (non-selection)
Best Historical Finish: Semifinals (1996)
Minimum Expectation: Second Round
How Far Could They Go: Quarterfinals
Fantasy Football Sleeper Option: Kieran Trippier (DEF - 5m)

The English enter the tournament (their 10th appearance overall) amongst the favourites (as high as 2nd by some oddsmakers). Winning would needless to be said unchartered territory for the Three Lions who have not ever made a Euro final. England enters the tournament with an extremely young team with only three players having celebrated their 30th birthdays (i.e. Walker, Henderson and Trippier). Only six of this group return from the 2016 edition and surprisingly there are only nine returning from the semifinal run at the World Cup in 2018. England comfortably with a near perfect record, seven wins with an away defeat to the Czech Republic the only stain. They scored an unbelievable thirty-seven goals whilst conceding only six. Confidence within the group will be sky high entering the tournament. Deja-vu all over again. Football's Coming Home?

England have a couple players who it can be argued are genuinely world class in their respective positions now (Walker, Henderson and Sterling) with one unquestionably already world class (Kane) but tellingly with a host that are on track to be world class in the foreseeable future (Rice, Grealish, Sancho, Mount, Foden, Chilwell, Saka and Bellingham). Foden and Sancho are the latest youngsters thrust into the limelight prior to a big tournament for England as potential messiahs - like Owen, Rooney, Walcott, Sterling and Rashford before them. Foden and Sancho have already been part of international success with England as part of the 2017 Under-17 World Cup winning team. 

Gareth Southgate was promoted to the coach role in 2016 having previously spent time with the U-21s. After the nadir of elimination in the Euro 2016 Second Round by the fairytale Icelandic side, Southgate has rebuilt the team and had a very successful World Cup 2016. The English will most likely lineup with a 4-2-3-1 formation with Pickford in goal behind a quartet of Trippier, Maguire, Stones and Chilwell. The defensive shield in midfield will probably be Rice and Henderson with Foden, Mount and Sancho playing behind Kane. The English have a wealth of talent in almost every position so expect major variations in personnel, but the trio of Kane, Rice and Maguire seem to be the most crucial simply because of the drop-off in quality between them and their potential direct replacements.

The English are unquestionably favourites to take this group (all their group games being played at Wembley) but the Croats could push them. Great game to open this group between the two which will go a long way to deciding the group winner. The biggest issue that the English may face in trying to have a deep run in the tournament is unquestionably the bracket. Winning this group (as stated above) guarantees the runner-up from Group F (likely France/Germany/Portugal) but again with the caveat of being able to play at Wembley. Come 2nd and guaranteed the runner-up from Group E (likely Poland/Spain/Sweden - not at Wembley) but then in all likelihood the winner of Group F in the quarterfinals should they get there. If they do aim to win it all, they do have to beat the best so this should be undaunting. Not prepared to say this team can, not yet at least, quarterfinals is the ceiling mainly due to the bracket but also the youthfulness of the squad and the questions about the manager tactical ability.


Team: SCOTLAND
Squad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_squads#Scotland
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/teams/117--scotland/

Captain: Andrew Robertson
Key Players: Andrew RobertsonScott McTominayKieran Tierney
Potential Breakout Player: Che Adams
Notable Absentees: Oli McBurnie (non-selection)
Best Historical Finish: Group Stage (1992; 1996)
Minimum Expectation: Qualifying (Already achieved)
How Far Could They Go: Group Stage
Fantasy Football Sleeper Option: Che Adams (FWD - 6.5m)

Scotland will be making their 3rd Euro appearance (first since 1996) after being the last team to qualify, ending a major tournament appearance drought spanning back to the 1998 World Cup. They had a solid qualifying campaign finishing 3rd behind Belgium and Russia, but their presence at the tournament is down to their success in the UEFA Nations League where they emerged as winners of the Group C section after winning a penalty shootout against a much more highly fancied Serbian team. 

Unlike other so-called 'smaller' nations which have qualified, the Scots don't boast a team which has played together for a long time. Aside from Gordon, no one has more than 50 caps. The key trio (Robertson, McTominay and Tierney) play regularly for 'Big Six' EPL clubs, however, the squad is largely comprised of role players for lower tier Premiership and players turning out for one of the Old Firm rivals.

Steve Clarke took the manager job in 2019 but endured a tumultuous start being soundly beaten by Belgium and Russia. He subsequently steadied the defensive side of the game and improved results followed. The Scots will most likely lineup with a 5-3-2 formation with Gordon in goal behind a CB trio of  Hanley, Tierney and Cooper, who will be flanked Robertson and Fraser playing as wingbacks. The midfield trio will probably be McTominay, McGregor and McGinn behind Dykes and Adams. The Scots struggle to score and aren't defensively sound, a bad recipe.

This team is by some distance the weakest in the group on paper but they do have the advantage of being able to host the Czechs and Croats. Qualifying is a massive success and filip for Scottish football, getting a win in this group would be some achievement given the limitations of the playing personnel. Everyone in the group will be banking on picking up a win against the Scots and potentially even be looking to pad their goal difference no less, but the Tartan Army can inspire a result. Still hard to fathom a scenario where they get two positive results which will be needed to have a realistic chance of advancing.




Play UEFA Euro 2020 Fantasy Football - Join The League
League Code: 50EFWFWU01

No comments:

Post a Comment